Round recap · 2026

Week of 14 Jul — how the model went

Every headline model read marked against the real scoreline, graded automatically when games finished.

Headline model reads

4–4

All markets

14–10

Council, this round

The Tactician aged best (2/4)

Analysis only — not betting advice. Our honest back-test shows the model trails the closing market over the long run; a strong round doesn't change that. See how this works.

Panthers 12 – 14 Broncos

Model selection: Panthers (77%) · council said CAUTION

Model read incorrect

Sharks 20 – 18 Knights

Model selection: Sharks (70%) · council said CAUTION

Model read correct

Roosters 14 – 6 Storm

Model selection: Storm +11.5 (line) (63%) · council said CAUTION

Model read correct

Raiders 34 – 24 Rabbitohs

Model selection: Under 48.5 (total) (66%) · council said CAUTION

Model read incorrect

Warriors 20 – 12 Dragons

Model selection: Warriors (81%) · council said CAUTION

Model read correct

Bulldogs 32 – 0 Wests Tigers

Model selection: Bulldogs (66%) · council said CAUTION

Model read correct

Titans 38 – 32 Sea Eagles

Model selection: Under 47.5 (total) (72%) · council said CAUTION

Model read incorrect

Dolphins 36 – 16 Cowboys

Model selection: Under 50.5 (total) (79%) · council said CAUTION

Model read incorrect

Coin-flip of the round

Roosters v Storm — the model's closest call at 63% on Storm +11.5. The read was correct.

Model estimates marked against final scores; grading is automatic at settlement. Analysis only — never betting advice. 18+ · Gamble responsibly — Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858.